This year all of the General Field categories (Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best New Artist) have been expanded from five nominees each to eight. Although more nominees means more records and artists being recognized, this also means predicting these categories become much, much harder. I’ll separate these songs into three categories: Locks, Strong Contenders, and Outside Shots.
Ella Mai and Dua Lipa
I only feel comfortable calling these two women locks for a nomination here. Ella has had a huge year with hits like “Boo’d Up” and “Trip.” Dua dominated pop culture with her hits “New Rules” and “One Kiss.” Both women are at the forefront of their respective genres and deserve nominations.
Juice WRLD, Chloe x Halle, Greta Van Fleet, H.E.R., Luke Combs
Juice WRLD had a career-defining hit with “Lucid Dreams,” but one big hit may not be enough. Chloe x Halle have great industry respect, a cult following, and Beyoncé’s name behind them. Nevertheless, their lack of success might hold them back. Greta Van Fleet has made waves recently in the rock world and the same goes for Luke Combs in the country world. Finally, H.E.R. has had a great year, but there may be too many solo female R&B artists vying for a nomination this year.
Marshmello, Bazzi, Troye Sivan, Noname, Hayley Kiyoko, Alice Merton, Jorja Smith, Brett Young, lovelytheband, Lauv
Marshmello has been around for a minute, but his two big hits (“Silence” and “Wolves”) really put him on the map this year. A nomination for him would also be a nod to the EDM community so he has a shot. Bazzi broke out with the smash “Mine” and his current single “Beautiful” is making waves. Troye Sivan shouldn’t be here, he’s had two top 5 albums before Bloom became his third this year. Nevertheless, he could make it in like Alessia Cara and Meghan Trainor this year. Hayley Kiyoko won Push Artist of the Year at the VMAs this year and her position as a vocal openly lesbian pop star is important. Her music is also acclaimed, she could make it in as well. Alice Merton has been holding it down for the women on alternative and rock radio with her hit “No Roots,” she would also be a worthy nominee. Brett Young had a big hit with “Mercy” and this category lends itself well to country artists. Finally, lovelytheband and Lauv each had moderate hits, but that may not be enough to carry them over the finish line. Jorja Smith would be third-in-line behind Ella Mai and H.E.R. for a nomination here. Other super-outside shots include Kali Uchis and 6ix9ine.
Final Predictions: Ella Mai, Dua Lipa, Luke Combs, Chloe X Halle, Greta Van Fleet, Marshmello, Troye Sivan, Noname
ALT: H.E.R. OR Alice Merton